Home Global warming Here’s how painful the economic loss will be for the United States from runaway climate change: Deloitte

Here’s how painful the economic loss will be for the United States from runaway climate change: Deloitte

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Definitive and deliberate climate action from Wall Street to Washington and beyond could bring $3 trillion to the US economy over the next 50 years to 2070. But it is the price of inaction that would cost the nation nearly five times that amount, a leading company says the council.

A new report released this week by the Deloitte Economics Institute shows that the United States could grow by $3 trillion if it decarbonises rapidly, meaning it becomes less dependent on CL00 fossil fuels,
-0.68%
and instead advances technology for the expansion of TAN renewable energy,
+0.19%,
over the next 50 years.

There will be a period of sharp economic transition, creating ‘winners’ and ‘losers’, then a break-even point, and finally a newly competitive economy, the researchers say. This once-in-a-generation transformation could add almost a million additional jobs to the US economy by 2070, according to The Turning Point: A new economic climate in the United States report.

“The report makes the case for another industrial revolution in the United States – based on low-emissions growth – to avoid major losses from the climate crisis and create a more vibrant and prosperous economy for the United States” , said Alicia Rose, assistant general manager. for Deloitte US “Analysis shows that the fight to slow climate change is not just an ambitious goal, but an economic imperative for the United States”

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Deloitte Economics Institute


The other side of the ledger is telling.

Over the past 50 years, the United States has suffered a total of $1.4 trillion in economic losses from weather, climate, and water risks, and although the trajectories of climate and economies are never linear, the Climate science and Deloitte analysis claim that a rise in average temperatures could cost the US economy $14.5 trillion (in today’s terms) over the next 50 years.

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If global warming reaches around 3°C by the end of the century, Deloitte’s analysis indicates that the economic damage would grow and worsen, affecting every industry and every region of the country. It would then be more difficult for people to live and work due to heat stress, rising sea levels, damaged infrastructure and declining agricultural productivity.

A separate report this week, from insurance and business advisory firm Aon, showed that deadly and costly Hurricane Ida and massive flooding in Europe fueled $329 billion in global weather-related economic losses last year. last, and only 38% of that tally was covered by insurance.

Deloitte’s analysis shows that losing $14.5 trillion over 50 years would reduce gross domestic product (GDP), the broadest measure of the economy, by 4%. That means about $1.5 trillion in 2070 alone. And over the next 50 years, nearly 900,000 jobs could be lost each year due to climate damage.

“If the United States chooses to take an ambitious and holistic path to decarbonization, it could see net economic gains by 2048.”


—Scott Corwin of Deloitte

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The report outlines a four-step scenario for America’s climate transition:

  1. By 2025, the public and private sectors are making bold decisions to rapidly transition to renewable energy. This involves transforming the electricity value chain, such as storage and transportation, which enables parallel and synchronized advances in mobility, industrial and food systems.

  2. From 2026 to 2040, the acceleration towards net zero creates major economic changes in policies, energy systems, investment priorities and consumer behavior.

  3. From 2041 to 2050 – which is the turning point where the benefits of the transition outweigh the costs – the decarbonization of high-emitting industries is almost complete. The costs of sustainable technologies are reduced and greater net economic gains are realized.

  4. In 2050 and beyond, the US economy is radically transformed and more globally competitive in core industries. The economy achieves net zero emissions, operating in a world that keeps global warming below 2°C.

“If the United States chooses to take an ambitious and holistic path to decarbonization, it could see net economic gains by 2048,” summarized Scott Corwin, managing director of Deloitte US’ ESG strategic growth offering. . “Every region of the country would benefit economically.”